Android in trouble!

Over the weekend, the blogosphere has been buzzing with "evidence" of Google having copied code from Sun/Oracle's Java and even worse, changing the license terms on that code. While some people see this as a nail in the Android coffin, several others see this as irrelevant, as the code in question is only related to testing, and unlikely to have ever found its way into shipping devices.

The point is, it is entirely irrelevant whether the code in question is important, or whether Google really copied the code, or some third party copied the code, or whether this code ever found its way into any shipping devices. The findings over the weekend will hurt Google quite bad in more important ways.

In these sort of cases, it is entirely upto the plaintiff (Oracle) to prove that Google violated their patents/copyrights. And this is a stiff hurdle. Very rarely is there a smoking gun that can be used as evidence. Especially in a project like Android, that has roots in Apache Harmony Project, and has also seen some third party contributions, it is difficult to pin the blame on Google, even if some violations can be proven. So Oracle has a really tough job on had.

That being said, Oracle has one real big advantage in this situation - time is working for Oracle. The more delay there is in resolving this court case, the more uncertainty there will be in the Android community and amongst hardware manufacturers. And this weekend's news only serves to increase that uncertainty. Already we are seeing articles on Android friendly sites - that things are not looking good for Android. This is the sort of PR that Android just cannot afford. This is the sort of situation that can easily go out of control and start impacting Android.

Microsoft Windows Phone 7 could be the unexpected beneficiary of this confusion. I expect manufacturers to start hedging their Android bets with either WP7 or other alternatives like Bada.

From a legal standpoint also, Google is on weak ground.
- The Counter-suit approach is not viable here - Google has very limited patent portfolio, and that is concentrated heavily around search. They can't find anything to beat Oracle with.
- The clean room defense will not fly - Google has hired way too many Java engineers from Sun - including Sun's former CTO - Eric Schmidt.
- "We didn't do it" will not fly - When it came to the original lawsuit, Google tried to blame Apache Harmony for the 6 pages of code that were alleged to have been copied. Apache promptly pointed out that that code did not come from Apache, and is from Google itself.
- Delayed enforcement will not fly - Oracle sued within months of acquiring Sun. Android itself has just been around for 2 years, and over those 2 years, Sun has made enough noises about not being happy with what Google has done with Java.

But all this is not important now - the main thing is, PR and sentiment tide just turned against Google!