Beginning of the end for Google

AdMob CEO and Founder complains iAd is not in best interest of consumers and developers. I guess he means it is not in the best interest of AdMob!

Google got the FTC to approve the AdMob acquisition citing competition from iAd - and now when they see the competition from iAd, they are whining! Can't have it both ways, Google!

And this is just the first penalty for backstabbing Apple - in time you will see Apple stepping on Google's toes a whole lot more.

Here is how I see it playing out -

- Developer interest in iPhone, is already high and is likely to get even higher as iPhone4 and the iPad kick some ass. Considering that there is still no good way to make money on Android, except for Ads, and considering that Ads piss off the users, iPhone comes off as a much better option for developers.

- iAd is already pulling in almost 50% of mobile advertising revenues even before the launch - just imagine what will be the scenario as AT&T exclusivity ends, and Apple launches the iPhone on Verizon, Sprint and T-Mobile. All of a sudden, Apple despite being bigger in market share will be growing faster than Android as well - that should take the wind out of Android sails, and reduce their momentum significantly.

- Apple will soon extend the AppStore to other areas as well - AppleTV is the obvious first choice, but I would not be surprised if Apple creates a simulator of some sort to allow running Apps from the AppStore on desktops and notebooks running Mac OS. This is easy, as there is already a simulator for MacOS as part of XCode. And the rumored Magic Trackpad should help with Touchscreen functionality as well. In any case, significant majority of Apps do not use multi-touch, and single touch can easily be replicated with just the mouse. And to really crush things, they should come out with such a simulator for Windows as well. If they can manage a simulator for Android, that would be the final nail in the coffin. In such a scenario, the AppStore could become the premium market to get Apps for any platform on earth. While this is far-fetched, it is not beyond the realm of possibility. In fact, I would be surprised if Apple is not already working on something like this for Mac OS and Windows.

- Once the AppStore becomes universal, iAd will be raking in way more of the advertising pie. And with such a big foothold in advertising, there is nothing stopping Apple from extending iAds to web search and advertising as well. Apple can already bring back Sherlock, and make Web Search itself an app.

- In parallel, Apple will continue initiatives like Reader on Safari 5 - which removes all ads from a website, and just presents the text in a much more readable format. Over time, initiatives like Reader will diminish the value of web ads massively. It is quite possible that when Reader gets sophisticated enough, that will be the DEFAULT mode for Safari, with the regular website as an OPTION! You can bet your last penny, that is one feature of Safari that Chrome will not copy!

- I would not put it past Apple to come up with an agreement with Microsoft to allow iAd on Windows Mobile 7, in exchange for having Bing on the iPhone. Possibly even pay MS $100M every year (or even more) for the privilege! After all, they will just be giving MS the money they get from Google!

- Apple will use their massive data center in North Carolina to become much bigger on Cloud Services. Likely to see a basic MobileMe become free, and supported by iAd, and a premium version that is paid, without ads.

- Apple will use the same data center to extend iTunes to become the YouTube of the world - they will just open up iTunes to allow anyone and everyone to submit content, have a proper mechanism using technology like Shazam to take care of Copyright issues. The submitter will have the choice to allow the content to be viewed for free, or paid. If it is free, it will be supported by iAd. iTunes already has fabulous searching and tagging functionality, and with iTunes Genius, they can do a much better job than Google can. For users, there will a simple option to enable or disable the free content, so that the clutter is manageable.

- iWork.com and App versions of iWork will easily supplant Google Docs - Once again, Apple could offer versions of these products for free, supported by iAd.

- As iAd gets big enough, it will pave the way for Apple to finally move AppleTV out of hobby status, and into a significant revenue stream. Customers can get an iTunes season pass for all the content on iTunes, either paying $49.99 per month, or $29.99 with iAd.

Google created Android as a way to get control over mobile web access. However, they will soon see that Android will turn out to be the reason why Google will lose - not just in Mobile advertising but probably in search advertising and desktop web access advertising as well!

Google might be a very big pony - but at the end of the day, it is a one-trick pony. And Apple can and should take away that one trick from them. To continue with the pony metaphor, with Google, Advertising was the cart, and Services were the horse - the services existed only to pull more advertising - whereas with Apple, Advertising will get its deserved role of being the horse, to move great services (the Apple cart). This is a major difference - Google was all about exploiting its services to get private information about the user, to help it target ads. Apple on the other hand is unlikely to try to make a profit from ads - they exist only to subsidize the content. They dont have to resort to being BigBrother, since they only want to break even on content.